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施瓦格19句交易名言

文|朱昂(微信:dianshi830)

导读:每一个投资大师都有其代表性的名言。比如巴菲特的名言是,永远不要亏钱。芒格的名言是,用公道的价格去买伟大的公司。今天我们就给大家分享一批来自最优秀对冲基金经理的投资名言。这些都是来自《对冲基金奇才》(hedge fund market wizard)作者,杰克.施瓦格的书。可以说这些话,未必每一句都对你有帮助,但是里面一定能找到给你带来启发,给你产生共鸣的那句话。其实很多年前,我就曾经翻译过里面的金句,发送给客户。今天,我在每一句话中,除了中英文的翻译,还增加了自己的注解。将自己的理解放进去,更好的帮助大家做一些内容提炼。也希望大家喜欢!
 
As Long as no one cares about it, there is no trend.  Would you be short Nasdaq in 1999? You can’t be short because you think fundamentally something is overpriced.  (只要没人在乎,就没有趋势。你会在1999年做空纳斯达克吗?你不能仅仅因为价格过高了而去做空)。
 
朱昂注:投资中不应该去做简单的逆向,而是等待趋势和价值的共振。1999年的纳斯达克泡沫巨大,但也是上涨最快速的。做空和做多不同,你持有成本更高,需要一定的择时
 
All markets look liquid during the bubble( massive uptrend), but its the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters. (所有泡沫在顶峰时期流动性都很好,但真正重要的是泡沫崩溃后的流动性)。
 
朱昂注:在每一次泡沫中,流动性都是很好的。2015年大熊市中,许多小股票一天交易量几十亿。但是2015年泡沫崩溃后,大家才发现了流动性问题,许多股票没有交易量了。
 
3. Markets tend to over discount the uncertainty related to identified risks.  Conversely, markets tend to underdiscount risks that have not yet been expressly identified.  Whenever the market is pointing at something and saying this is a risk to be concerned about, in my experience, most of the time, the risk ends up being not as bad as the market anticipated. (市场总是会过度反应已有风险的不确定性。相反的,市场总是对于还没有发生的风险预期不够。当市场开始说需要担心某个风险的时候,从我的经验上感觉,大部分时候这个风险并没有市场预期的那么差)
 
朱昂注:市场总是过度反应当下和已知,对于未来和未知反应不足。2008年A股底部时,所有人都觉得市场要关门,经济大萧条了。其实那个时候风险已经包含在价格中,而且被过度反应了。
 
The low-quality names tend to outperform early in the cycle, and the high-quality names tend to outperform toward the end of the cycle.(周期开始的时候往往质量低劣的公司跑赢,而周期尾端的时候往往质量好的公司跑赢)
 
朱昂注:可以理解为,牛市前期买垃圾股,牛市后期买绩优股
 
Traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade. In reality, the entry size is often more important than the entry price because if the size is too large, a trader will be more likely to exit a good trade on a meaningless adverse price move. The larger the position, the greater the danger that trading decisions will be driven by fear rather than by judgment and experience. (交易员几乎只关注何时进入交易。事实上,交易的规模往往比价格重要,因为如果规模过大,交易员很可能在没有意义的股价波动中退出一个很好的交易。头寸越大,交易员受恐惧的影响就越大)
 
朱昂注:许多人关注股票的买入价格,其实比买入价格更重要的是,买入的量。买入的量大,可能会放大你的恐惧和贪婪,但其实也决定了你的收益率。索罗斯也曾经说过,重要的不是这笔交易表面浮盈比例,而是你下了多少筹码,赚钱的数量级。
 
Virtually all traders experience periods when they are out of sync with the markets. When you are in a losing streak, you can’t turn the situation around by trying harder. When trading is going badly, Clark’s advice is to get out of everything and take a holiday. Liquidating positions will allow you to regain objectivity. (几乎每个交易员都会经历和踏不准市场节奏的时候,当你连续输的时候,不是更加努力就能扭转情况的。当一系列错误交易的时候,应该卖掉一切去度假。卖掉所有的仓位能让你重新获得客观性)。
 
朱昂注:每个人在投资中都会面临自己风格或者方法不适应的时候。比如价值股风格的人,在2013年和2015年上半年就会很难受。成长股风格在2012年,2015年下半年也会很痛苦。投资方法也类似,不是年年赚大钱,巴菲特还在1999年网络股泡沫高峰时,跑输几乎所有基金经理。这时候,其实你不需要尝试扭转乾坤,而是应该去放松一些,用客户的眼光看待目前的现状。
 
Staring at the screen all day is counterproductive. He believes that watching every tick will lead to both selling good positions prematurely and overtrading. He advises traders to find something else (preferably productive) to occupy part of their time to avoid the pitfalls of watching the market too closely. (整天看着屏幕根本没有效率。他认为看着每个股票会导致过早卖出好的股票和过度交易。他建议交易员找点其他事情来填补时间,而不要看着市场太紧密)
 
朱昂注:投资中最害人的就是时时刻刻盯盘。看盘是没问题的,保持和市场的感觉。但时时刻刻盯盘,想做每一个波段,关注每一个小数点的波动,其实毫无意义。而且盯盘是一个效率很低的事情,不如用来看书和跑步。
 
When markets are trending up strongly, and there is bad news, the bad news counts for nothing. But if there is a break that reminds people what it is like to lose money in equities, then suddenly the buying is not mindless anymore. People start looking at the fundamentals, and in this case I knew the fundamentals were very ugly indeed. (当市场强势向上的时候出现坏消息,坏消息什么都不是。但是如果有一段时间提醒人民亏钱的感觉是什么,突然间不理智的买盘会消失。人们会开始看基本面,而在这个时候我知道基本面会很差)。
 
朱昂注:在牛市中,每一个坏消息都会迅速消化,甚至被当做低开高走,给大家买入机会的利好。但是一旦市场涨不动了,没有赚钱效应后,往往意味着市场见顶。因为这个时候看基本面,往往是有巨大泡沫的。
 
Buying low-beta stocks is a common mistake investors make. Why would you ever want to own boring stocks? If the market goes down 40 percent for macro reasons, they’ll go down 20 percent. Wouldn’t you just rather own cash? And if the market goes up 50 percent, the boring stocks will go up only 10 percent. You have negatively asymmetric returns. (买弹性低的股票是一个常有的错误。为什么你想拥有无聊的股票。如果市场因为宏观因素下跌40%,他们会下跌20%。那还不如持有现金呢?而如果市场上涨50%,无聊的股票只会上涨10%。你的相对收益是负的)
 
朱昂注:你不能因为一个股票下跌会比较少而去买。投资不是比谁亏的少,而是去买能涨的多。当然这一度我的理解是,还是要做组合管理。组合里面如果都是高弹性的股票,也是非常危险的。
 
10. If a stock is extremely oversold—say, the RSI is at a three-year low—it will get me to take a closer look at it.8 Normally, if a stock is that brutalized, it means that whatever is killing it is probably already in the price. RSI doesn’t work as an overbought indicator because stocks can remain overbought for a very long time. But a stock being extremely oversold is usually an acute phenomenon that lasts for only a few weeks. (如果一个股票严重过卖了,比如RSI是三年新低,这会让我仔细看看这个股票。通常如果一个股票被如此痛扁,所有毁灭他的理由都已经在股价中了。RSI对于超买不是很好的指标因为股票可以被超买很长一段时间。然而股票被严重超卖所持续的时间不会超过几个星期)
 
朱昂注:这个关于技术方面的指标,就不太懂了。
 
If you don’t understand why you are in a trade, you won’t understand when it is the right time to sell, which means you will only sell when the price action scares you. Most of the time when price action scares you, it is a buying opportunity, not a sell indicator. (如果你不知道为什么你买了这个股票,你不会明白什么时候应该卖出,这也因为这只有股票波动让你害怕时才会卖出。而大部分股价大幅波动时,是买入机会,而不是卖出指标)。
 
朱昂注:你必须很清楚知道为什么会买入这个股票,而不是轻易去听信别人的话。只有对于买入股票的理由很清楚,你也会知道出现什么情况会卖出。如果是听了别人,甚至自己乱买,那么一个波动就会让你卖出。
 
Normally, I let winners run and cut losers. In 2009, however, as a result of the posttraumatic effects of going through the September 2008 to February 2009 period—talking to clients who are going out of business and seeing 50 percent of your fund redeemed is all very wearing—I got into the habit of snatching quick 10 to 15 percent profits in individual positions. Most of these positions then went up another 35 to 40 percent. I consider my pattern of taking quick profits in 2009 a dreadful error that I think came about because I had lost a degree of confidence due to experiencing my first down year in 2008. (通常我会持有赚钱股,致损亏钱股。然而在2009年,由于大部分投资者对于08年9月至09年2月期间的创伤记忆犹新—许多客户清盘,看到50%的资金被赎回。所以我开始习惯看到10-15%的利润就了结。而大部分这些仓位卖出后又涨了35-40%。我认为自己2009年快速获利了结的习惯是因为我2008年第一次经历了亏钱导致我失去信心后而产生的一个可怕的错误)
 
朱昂注:许多个人投资者最常见的错误就是止盈不止损。当一个股票越涨,他会觉得越害怕。相反,当一个股票越跌,他会觉得越安全。这里有一个“心理成本价”的关系。我们总觉得自己的成本价都是有效的,越是高于成本价,这个股票泡沫越大,越是低于成本价,这个股票价值越大。其实很多时候恰恰相反。我们这样做可能会放跑真正的牛股,然后拿着一把表现不好的股票。
 
13. As an equity trader, I learned the short-selling lessons relatively early. There is no high for a concept stock. It is always better to be long before they have already moved a lot than to try to figure out where to go short.(作为一个股票交易员,我很早就学会了做空的教训。对于主题股来说没有股价太高一说。永远是在股票上涨前做多更好,而不是之后再想该在什么地方做空)。
 
朱昂注:概念股,主题投资靠的是情绪,而不是估值。情绪只要在,会越涨越高。不要轻易去做空你觉得高估的股票。或者说,不要仅仅因为高估而去做空!
 
Do you know what happens in a bull market? Prices open up lower and then go up for the rest of the day. In a bear market, they open up higher and go down for the rest of the day. When you get to the end of a bull market, prices start opening up higher. Prices behave that way because in the first half hour it is only the fools that are trading [pause] or people who are very smart. (你知道在牛市中会发生什么?股价低开,然而在剩下的时间内上涨。在熊市中,股票高开低走。当你进入牛市末期,股价开始高开。股价会如此表现是因为在开盘前半小时只有傻子在交易, 或者是非常聪明的人)。
 
朱昂注:牛市一开始的时候,开盘半小时是聪明人在交易,他们往往提前看到了牛市来临。于是每一次低开他们都买入。市场总是能低开高走。但是到了后期,傻子开始成为开盘前半小时的交易主体,于是市场开变得高开高走,直到趋势扭转。熊市初期也一样,一旦高开低走,往往是熊市特征。
 
15. Now that you have switched from net long to net short, what would get you long again? – Buying. If all of a sudden stocks stopped going down on bad news that would be a positive sign. (现在你从净多头转向净空头,那什么能让你重新做多?如果突然间股票没有因为负面消息而下跌,那是一个正面的信号)。
 
朱昂注:当一个股票出现负面信息后股价不再下跌,那就是一个非常正面的看多信号。
 
Lots of companies screen as being “cheap.” I think that it’s easy to avoid value traps. The trick is to stay away from companies that can’t grow their cash flow and increase intrinsic value…As Buffett says, “Time is the enemy of the poor business and the friend of the great business.” (许多公司大喊太便宜了。我认为避免价值投资陷阱很简单。核心就是避免那些现金流无法增长以及无法增加内在价值的公司。。。如同巴菲特说的“时间是糟糕业务的敌人,伟大业务的朋友)
 
朱昂注:如何避免价值投资陷阱?千万不要去买那些表面上很便宜的公司。要去面能持续保持现金流和内在价值增长的公司。有些公司虽然便宜,但根本不是好生意。这种公司是时间的敌人!
 
If I wrote a book about a strategy that worked every month, or even every year, everyone would start using it, and it would stop working. Value investing doesn’t always work. The market doesn’t always agree with you. Over time, value is roughly the way the market prices stocks, but over the short term, which sometimes can be as long as two or three years, there are periods when it doesn’t work. And that is a very good thing. The fact that our value approach doesn’t work over periods of time is precisely the reason why it continues to work over the long term. (如果要我写本书关于某种策略能够每个月,每年都表现很好,当大家都开始用的时候,就变得无效了。价值投资并不永远有效。市场不是永远赞同你。长期看,市场估算股票的价格是价值的,但是短期看,有时候甚至有两三年的时间,价值投资并不有效。而且是这非常好的事情。价值投资的短期无效才能使长期的价值投资更加有效)。
 
朱昂注:市场是很聪明的,如果有一个模式时时刻刻有效战胜市场,那么大家都会用,最终导致其超额收益迅速收窄,变得无效。那么价值投资为什么那么多年一直有效呢?因为价值投资是看长期的,许多人无法站在10年,20年的维度做投资。因为价值投资会有几年也跑不赢市场,这恰恰导致不是所有人会使用价值投资。价值投资的精髓是,在不适应市场的阶段,依然能够坚持。
 
The institutionalization of the market has shortened time horizons—it has reduced the window of time managers have to outperform. Most managers can’t wait for two years for an investment to work. They have to perform now. Their institutional and individual clients appear to demand it through their money flows. (市场的机构化导致时间周期变短,缩短了基金经理需要超越市场的时间。许多基金经理无法为一个投资等待两年。他们必须现在就跑赢。因为他们的机构和个人投资者通过资金流来要求这种表现)
 
朱昂注:如果对于基金经理考核过于短视,那么会导致交易行为的短视。其实这个世界上,大部分人都愿意买入和持有,然后享受自己生活。但你的行为,是由资金性质决定的。
 
The single best-performing mutual fund for the entire decade was up 18 percent a year, on average, during a period when the market was flat, yet the average investor in that fund lost 8 percent. That is because every time the fund did well, people piled in, and every time it underperformed, people redeemed. (这个世纪表现最好的共同基金年化收益率达到18%,而市场却是走平的,然而这个基金的投资者平均亏损8%。因为每当这个基金表现良好时,投资者开始迈入,而当他跑输市场时,投资者开始赎回)。
 
朱昂注:这是全世界基金产品最大的难题。许多基金的表现都是正收益,但是投资人却是亏钱的。因为基金表现好的时候,大家买入很多。基金表现不好的时候,大家又卖出很多。从这个角度看,一个基金产品的收益率虽然重要,但其波动率可能更重要。只有低波动率,收益率不错,其持有人才能长期持有赚到钱。
 
最后,写下这19句投资军规的杰克.施瓦格,将在一周内来到国内,在深圳、北京、上海和香港四个地方进行投资者见面会沟通。欢迎大家继续扫下面的二维码报名,在报名备注中添加(朱昂),更容易被主办方通过(由于部分区域座位有限,不能保证全部通过,目前深圳场还有少数空位)。也欢迎大家直接和我微信报名(dianshi830)。
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